The race for the White House has solidified that Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican nominee! I had a bet that Mitt Romney would have bowed out and Paul Ryan would go forward as the GOP nominee. Yes, it was a punt and yea I managed to trade locking in my money back with the outside chance of picking up £1,600+ for an original £2.65 bet.
That £2,65 risk was is the price of a pint of Guinness. The fact I got it back with £0.03 profit with the added benefit that if it did happen – very unlikely, I would pick up the price of a week in Ibiza at Christmas. Why not have a go? I buy lottery tickets which I hope will win a Autumn hamper. Basically I throw money away on trying to predict 6 number out of 49. I have more chance of being struck by lightning twice than win the lottery, yet I do it.
So with Mitt Romney getting 67% of the view on CNN, that he won the first debate means he sticks in the race and my bet which is not entirely finished, but, it is in a critical position. I always knew Mitt Romney would come out raging and fired up. You do not become a nominee by not being fired up. However, if there is a sudden accident, or a sex tape featuring teenage boys scenario turns up, then things could change again.
It was a weird coincidence that a tape attacking Islam gets prominence on Youtube on the 9/11 anniversary remembrance this year, which then led to people getting killed! These things always seem to happen. Just sayin!
During the 2004 election do you remember the Osama bin Laden tape which came out saying to vote against President Bush? That was to help President Bush!
In political terms this is the World Cup Final of politics and Romney is leading 1 – 1 after the first half. Yes, leading 1 – 1! Therefore he is now in the position in which Obama has to attack, in the second half to secure victory. Obama has a good ground game, but, Romneys’ side has a very fired up base and could also develop a good ground game. We all remember the TEA Party rallies, completely bonkers and stupid but effective.
So now Obama has to put Romney in his place. Apparently during the debate, Romney dropped policies, came up with stats that do not make sense and just kept saying believe what I am saying and don’t listen to reason or facts. I am taking the US cabal TV analysis for this view as I had fallen a sleep while waiting to watch the debate. Fact checking are for wimps was the essence of Romney’s debate approach!
For an outsider this is fascinating, that’s why I love US politics. In a way this is a big election because Mitt Romney has no core beliefs to drive him to be President , just that he wants to be President. You do not have so many changed positions without people noticing and this debate will be fact checked until the cows come home. I missed the debate but really and truly unless Mitt Romney actually ‘puked all’ over himself like Rick Perry, he was going to be the nominee. Now I will have to look at another hail Mary type zinger bet to have a chance to pit my analysis against the US betting public.
If the polls tighten then it makes my fun a little bit more interesting. Could Obama win North Carolina? Can Romney win Ohio? These odds may fluctuate wildly over the next couple of days and I will sure take an interest when they do. Bring forth the guillotine!
The Paul Ryan v Joe Biden debate should be really interesting. Paul Ryan is looking to knock Joe Biden out and place himself as top dog of the GOP. If he does so then he will be in great position for 2016. Joe Biden could spring a surprise and win it for President Obama by locking Paul Ryan on facts and figures. Paul Ryan is so dodgy when it comes to facts and figures that it could get him in all sorts of trouble. But, as an Ayn Rand devotee, Paul Ryan could not give a toss. Objectivism means being selfish is a great thing. So, the debate maybe more interesting than the 3 Presidential debate put together.