Julie Warning and Eric Arty kissing

The 3rd and final debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney was a smackdown for Obama! It was watching a professor gently scalding a immature loud mouth. Mitt Romney complained but eventually agreed that Obama was right. Incredible! 

I thought my bet on Paul Ryan for President was dead and buried, well it might have just been resuscitated. The only thing I can remember Romney saying was that he loved teachers. And why not? Especially as it was a debate on foreign policy!!!???

By the way the picture is not Romney and Obama in a clinching manner it is teacher Julie Warning and student Eric Arty having a ‘love in’. Not sure I would have grassed up my teacher if I had the opportunity when I was 16. Especially if she played strip poker! Why would I?

Romney v Obama - part 2

Obama won the debate in New York, but it is too late for my extra-ordinary bet on Paul Ryan taking over the Republican nominee and then winning the Presidential election 2012.  President Obama just did not take the first debate seriously and allowed Mitt Romney to come out with all sorts of fantasy statements and win the debate. This time after giving Romney a lifeline in the last debate, he finally skewed Romney over ‘Act of Terrorism’  statement, equal pay and of course the 47% thing.

I could not believe that it was Romney that presented a open goal for the President to tap in the ball and score points on the 47% remark. Up till then the Obama supporters were overloading Twitter with appeals for him to bring up the 47% thing. Then Romney jumped right in and brought it up himself in his last statement. It was unbelievable!

So what happens now? Well there is one more debate and time for Romney to try and duff up Obama over Libya. Some how I think that all those who have not decided are so small that it will be down to who can get their opponent to make a major mistake. Since both guys are good debaters and nimble on their feet, this election will be down to who can get the vote out most effectively.

As for a bet, I cannot have anything as the markets are pretty accurate in my view. Oh for the days of trading on Rick Santorum and the 300/1+ bets. But you never know Romney in Ohio and Obama in North Carolina are still possibilities.

Paul Ryan

My totally speculative bet on Paul Ryan being the nominee that faces Obama on November 6th. With Mitt Romney looking like a loser and Ryan being the right wing sweet heart, my bet at the time looked great…until the debates and it has all gone ‘kaputt’.

First Obama looked like he wished he was on a date with his wife for their anniversary rather than debating the finer points of  US foreign policy with Mitt Romney. Then, today Paul Ryan got smacked by ‘Ol Joe Biden’.  Joe Biden was supposed to be trounced by political wonky Paul Ryan. Instead Biden literally slapped Ryan around and made Ryan make silly mistakes.

Ryan got involved in abortion, stimulus and Medicare and lost the debate. He may have won in the argument about Libya but saying a war with Iran is a good idea will not go down well.

Therefore the £1,600+ I would have won is now going to sit there until November 6th 2012 when Obama or Romney become President. Luckily I managed to trade out and made £0.06p on the trade anyway so it was a free bet.

Mitt Romney

The race for the White House has solidified that Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican nominee! I had a bet that Mitt Romney would have bowed out and Paul Ryan would go forward as the GOP nominee. Yes, it was a punt and yea I managed to trade locking in my money back with the outside chance of picking up £1,600+ for an original £2.65 bet.

That £2,65 risk was is the price of a pint of Guinness. The fact I got it back with £0.03 profit with the added benefit that if it did happen – very unlikely, I would pick up the price of a week in Ibiza at Christmas. Why not have a go? I buy lottery tickets which I hope will win a Autumn hamper. Basically I throw money away on trying to predict 6 number out of 49. I have more chance of being struck by lightning twice than win the lottery, yet I do it.

So with Mitt Romney getting 67% of the view on CNN, that he won the first debate means he sticks in the race and my bet which is not entirely finished, but, it is in a critical position. I always knew Mitt Romney would come out raging and fired up. You do not become a nominee by not being fired up. However, if there is a  sudden accident, or a sex tape featuring teenage boys scenario turns up, then things could change again.

It was  a weird coincidence that a tape attacking Islam gets prominence on Youtube on the 9/11 anniversary remembrance this year, which then led to people getting killed! These things always seem to happen. Just sayin!

During the 2004 election do you remember the Osama bin Laden tape which came out saying to  vote against President Bush? That was to help President Bush!

In political terms this is the World Cup Final of politics and Romney is leading 1 – 1 after the first half. Yes, leading 1 – 1! Therefore he is now in the position in which Obama has to attack, in the second half to secure victory. Obama has a good ground game, but, Romneys’ side has a very fired up base and could also develop a good ground game. We all remember the TEA Party rallies, completely bonkers and stupid but effective.

So now Obama has to put Romney in his place. Apparently during the debate, Romney dropped policies, came up with stats that do not make sense and just kept saying believe what I am saying and don’t listen to reason or facts. I am taking the US  cabal TV analysis for this view as I had fallen a sleep while waiting to watch the debate. Fact checking are for wimps was the essence of Romney’s debate approach!

For an outsider this is fascinating, that’s why I love US politics. In a way this is a big election because Mitt Romney has no core beliefs to drive him to be President , just that he wants to be President. You do not have so many changed positions without people noticing and this debate will be fact checked until the cows come home. I missed the debate but really and truly unless Mitt Romney actually ‘puked all’ over himself like Rick Perry, he was going to be the nominee. Now I will have to look at another hail Mary type zinger bet to have a chance to pit my analysis against the US betting public.

If the polls tighten then it makes my fun a little bit more interesting. Could Obama win North Carolina? Can Romney win Ohio? These odds may fluctuate wildly over the next couple of days and I will sure take an interest when they do. Bring forth the guillotine!

The Paul Ryan v Joe Biden debate should be really interesting. Paul Ryan is looking to knock Joe Biden out and place himself as top dog of the GOP. If he does so then he will be in great position for 2016. Joe Biden could spring a surprise and win it for President Obama by locking Paul Ryan on facts and figures. Paul Ryan is so dodgy when it comes to facts and figures that it could get him in all sorts of trouble. But, as an Ayn Rand devotee, Paul Ryan could not give a toss. Objectivism means being selfish is a great thing. So, the debate maybe more interesting than the 3 Presidential debate put together.

Paul Ryan

Some time a go I said have a bet on Paul Ryan to be the Republican Party to be the nominee for the 2012 election. I believe that Mitt Romney may well pull out and the next week first Presidential debate maybe the catalyst that sees Romney drop out, and at 999/1 it is a interestingly speculative bet. I reckon it should be more 100/1. We shall see!

Check out the video which put it too Romney that Paul Ryan is more popular than Mitt Romney within the ‘Grand Ol’ Party’. It is very hard to watch if you’re a Romney supporter.

Joe Scarborough Reacts To Romney-Ryan Chant: ‘Sweet Jesus’

Cassandra

On August 30th 2012, I made a bet that Paul Ryan could be the Republican nominee for President of The United States of America! A bit of a wild call, but I backed it up by betting £2.86 at 879/1, which is basically the price of a pint. 

I then compounded my views with a piece on Ann Romney and the look she had on her face after the infamous speech by Clint Eastwood and the empty ‘chair‘. It was clear to me that Mitt Romney was not going to run a campaign based on policy, he was running a marketing campaign in which Mitt Romney was a brand and he was saying his brand was better than Barack Obama’s brand. The chair incident made it clear that the Romney brand was not enough and he was going to have the biggest failure of his life and Ann Romney definitely did not want to be on that side, hence the look.

Most of the people I know who follow U.S politics in the U.K laughed and said I wasted a ‘beer token’ on a non-event. However, someone unexpected came to my defence and publicly called for a Paul Ryan/Marco Rubio ticket for the 2012 election. William Kristol the conservative writer said in a article ”A Note on Romney’s Arrogant and Stupid Remarks”  that Romney should step down and let Ryan-Rubio ticket go forward to the election for President 2012!  If this guy is talking like this, then those within the Republican/Grand Ol’ Party establishment must also be talking about this and this has been backed up by someone taking a huge chunk of bets at 149/1 and better.

Having laid some off so that I can get my ‘beer token’ back (the princely sum of £2.86) I am now sitting on a potential £1,600+ profit if the most devastating political act was to happen. If it did happen then it would create ructions and an upheaval that could put Ryan in the Whitehouse as the Republican base would be so fired up as they would have the first ‘objectivist’ in the Whitehouse.  Amazing times indeed!

Harry Reid - head honcho in the Senate

It looks like that any meaningful legislation, legalising online poker in the US is going to have to wait until the elections on November 6th are over. The bi-partisan committee led by the softly spoken, but, deadly Harry Reid is having trouble getting the Republicans to support a joint effort to move ahead with legal and regulated online poker.

It seems more and more the US is going to have one of those transformational elections where the destiny of the country and geo-politics has a defining moment. 

Politics is poker by another name. You not only play the hand that you are given, you hopefully make a bigger profit by the end of the session, but, you play your opponent. Look for weakness and strengths, play on their weakness and defend against their strengths. Clearly it looks like an Obama victory and with victories comes the spoil. So the Republicans are hoping to diminish the incumbent President by being  juvenile and being against anything that Obama is for, even if the Republicans agree with it!  

Not supporting a desire to make legal a major cultural reference from a country that is supposed to defend freedom and the pursuit of happiness. Poker is the rugged frontiers lifestyle writ large. Your mind and your chips go to war, just as the pioneers where pushing the boundary of a nation state in the young republic. Poker is a game of skill and the US government and legislators must recognise the fact and regulate the online game, as it will also help make worldwide online poker more respectable.

At the moment Obama is so far a head in the sense that Romney is really way out of his depth for President. Getting 1.40+ is a damn good price on Obama. The only problem is if Obama was assassinated or he was to be caught with an 18 year old rent boy, basically something really bad happened, then he may lose.  At the moment nothing like that is out there, but. as someone once said ‘….there are unknowns that we dont know we dont know…’

Romney has made another complete fool of himself and show’s the Republicans are about to go into nuclear war with Obama and amongst the GOP elite . I have had a sneaky bet on Paul Ryan getting the nomination because Romney could pull out! Do Romney and his family want to be messing up any political capital they once had? I just have a feeling that Ann Romney could be a major player in his decision to stay in the election. Basically I have pot odds to go for an inside straight and I have had a bet on it. You never know!

Ann Romney Look Of Disgust At Clint Eastwood

The look says it all! Is this the time that Ann Romney knew that the game was up? How can her husband carry on when all around him the sub-ordinates are actively positioning themselves to run for President in 2016? By positioning themselves for 2016 it is clear that they know in their heart that Mitt Romney cannot win 2012. Only the die hard Obama haters will continue because they would do anything to get rid of President Obama and nothing will stop their hatred not even the truth or facts. 

When Clint Eastwood made his improv monologue he looked and acted like a someone with a serious mental illness. This could not have been planned as a good thing, why would you let your biggest moment of your personal and political life be held by a guy who looked like he just got of bed and decided to wear an ill fitting suit to introduce the potential next President? Someone knew this and let it happened. They wanted to destroy the message of the Republican nominee and in effect the leader of the Republican party. 

Now I let you into a not so little secret, I wanted Rick Santorum to be the nominee because I had a small bet on him at massive odds. My thinking was that the Republican party have had a collective mental breakdown since Lehman’s Day 2008 when the banking system went into total collapse and the government was forced to do what they said they would never do and intervene into the markets to make sure the ATM’s still worked. If they didn’t then the whole economic system would have gone into meltdown and civil war would have broken out.

In effect they ripped up the doctrine of Ronald Regan and became a communist government – as they would see it! Their leader was George W Bush aided and abetted by the most right wing backroom staff ever, which was marshalled by Dick Cheney. This led to utter and complete confusion for many true believers and they just have not got over it. On top of that, the country then voted for a guy with the name Barack Hussein Obama to be the President which completely done their heads in and this all happened 40 years after Martin Luther King jr was assassinated. 

So after they gained some composure they set out to ‘take their country back’. It meant doing anything and everything to destroy Obama and bring in someone to restore order and the Ancien Régime – as they see it! However, some within the party knew that Obama is a formidable campaigner and did not want to take on an incumbent with the mass appeal of Obama. They know that the country was left in a disastrous state that even Hank Paulson told George W. Bush to give him the trillions of dollars, but don’t ask any questions about what he was going to do with it. Why, because it would not have been very popular and would cause resentment and not entirely resolve the problem with the economy. 

When the primaries got started it was clear that all the sensible candidates would not take part. Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels and even Paul Ryan, who I had a small bet on in the beginning, trading out when it was profitable. So the only half sensible candidate was Mitt Romney the rest were clowns and performance artist. The only one that could be sensible was Rick Santorum but his politics was so conservative that it was seen as a turn off to the independents.

Now looking back I bet those who really believe in banning rape in all cases and even going back to the gold standard wish they had gone for Rick Santorum. Hence this is why I think that Mitt Romney is not leading the party, the party is leading him. He is not in control of his party. Apparatchiks are running the show, that’s why Paul Ryan could go on stage and blatantly lie and not produce any ideas or policy for the public. Mitt Romney cannot tell Paul Ryan what to do. 

After the disastrous foreign tour and now a disastrous convention, any pretence that Romney is fit to lead goes straight out of the window. He is the nominee in name only. So this is the question. If Ann Romney want to see her husband completely and totally humiliated then she will let him continue in the process – not humiliated by not winning, but demeaned by the people on the inside who want him to lose? The country will not be put right in another four years. Even Paul Ryan’s plan is talking about a 20+ year period before it will be in credit. So the objectivist and others around him do not mind Obama being in charge for four more years as he is more or less doing what they would do.

Mitt Romney cannot be happy with the lies that are said in his name. It is so blatant and unwarranted. Even the joke about Obama’s birth must have been stomach churning. The only person that can stop Mitt Romney is his wife. She has to tell him the truth about what is going on and tell him that let Paul Ryan take the the fight to Obama without him. One way or another he must get out. Anything else will destroy him as a human being as he cannot in his heart want to be the guard that lets the lunatics take over the asylum. My bet on Paul Ryan still stands!

Clint Eastwood - The Outlaw Josey Wales

Clint Eastwood RNC Speech (COMPLETE): Actor Assails Obama

It was brilliant to watch! Almost like a Monty Python sketch on acid tabs. Clint Eastwood completely over turned the concept of a political endorsement. The 82 year old went on the Republican stage and attacked the leaders who did not consult with Russia about Afghanistan – Clint blamed Obama but it was Bush who went into war with the Taliban. He attacked Gitmo not realising the GOP loved Gitmo. He then had a rather touching conversation with an empty chair which represented President Obama. It was like you walked into a mind of someone who has completely lost the plot and was desperate to explain why he is not sure why he has lost the plot.

For sometime it has been clear that Lehman’s Day 2008 did more damage to America than just them losing a lot of money. It scared the bejesus out of what they once held dear. Certain sections of society thought nothing would get in the way of Ronald Regan’s voodoo economics, but it did when the banks decided that casino betting was better than traditional banking – and they went for it! Now we have a group of people who will say anything and do anything that will make them feel better so when Paul Ryan makes a bid for the leadership of the Grand Ol’ Party 2012 by basically lying (lying so much that even a Fox News corresponded had to call it dishonest and wrong), he is now being bet on (primarily by yours truly) because anything can happen between now and November 6th!

Clint Eastwood finally proved my point when he went on stage and did some sort of Dada inspired monologue which was both embarrassing, funny and totally irrelevant to the issues of the day. Please watch the video it is an amazing piece of cruel entertainment from an icon of Americana. I had to stop playing poker to watch it in shock. Afterwards I put another couple of pounds on Paul Ryan being elected President 2012 at 899/1.

Paul Ryan

Not in 2016, but, in 2012? Why not!? As I understand it, the position of the Vice President of the USA is that if anything happens to The President, the next person in line is the Vice President. So if Romney pulls out of the race for President, technically the Vice President would more or less be guaranteed that he would be leader of the party and effectively the person looking to be President, therefore if he gets the most electoral votes then the former Vice President nominee would effectively be President!

Have a little flutter on Paul Ryan being elected President 2012!