A The Turn of The Tide by Steve Bonner

We all make choices even if it is a choice between a rock and a hard place. In poker the hardest choice is what to do after the flop because this is when you have either made your hand, re-inforced your hand or have a great chance of having a hand. it can also mean that your opponenents has done the same or even better.

This is the same for life choices or any other choice you have to make. I recently had a choice over picking Accrington Stanly to beat Notts County at Notts County.  I turned down the opportunity because I was blinded by the magnificent of Sven Goran Erikson  (the former England manager), and the belief that other teams had better chances to win than Accrington Stanly – such as Chelsea at home to Everton!

At 9/2 (5.5) it was a reasonable bet, i did my homework and the stats looked good as did the price. I chickened out and Accrington Stanley duly won against a Notts County team in crisis. Chelsea by the way drew making my bad choice a double whammy.

Likewise Mr Anurag Dikshit from Party Gaming – our poker geek poster boy’s – is in the news today as his company is in talks about a massive $2 billion merger with Bwin the Austrian betting firm. Again choices are at play because in the age of austerity mergers and cost cutting are the order of the day. This will lead to many other mergers and cost cutting allied with new innovations.

On the face of it this seems like a rational thing to do, but I see dangers as it wil dilute the brand that is Bwin. Nothing against Party Gaming but Bwin has a very sensible image and there are other poker brands that would love to get there hands on Bwin strong European operations.

Obviously the choice is whether to buy Bwin shares for the inevitable price ramping that will happen and the answer is yes. My only caveat is that based on my choices this weekend i would not go lumping on the share price, just in case.

Antoine Saout

The big event on Saturday is set to start 12 noon (Pacific Time) and I have been given a surprise tip by Magical Tipser – it is Antoine Saout.

He is the 25 year old Frenchman who is the surprise package in this years final and subsequently he is a big price (18/1 on Betfair). As the rank outsider he is expected to be one of the first to be knocked out, however, do not be surprised if he stays in a lot longer than most people think.

Apparently he has been practicing very hard by playing in all sorts of tournaments and seems to have a lot of stamina which is needed for such competition.

James Akenhead – come into the calculations as another big price (15/1) but he is also short stacked and he too will need a miracle, but sometimes miracles do happen.