The tale of a film being made in which a card player voluntary throws away 3 three’s in a game of brag because he wanted to make a big play rumbles on. It is not that artistic licence is being stretched to incredulity levels, it is that the film maker actually believes that a gambler would do this! Yes, he has actually convinced himself that people are that stupid and anyone who plays 3 card brag will find it an acceptable proposition….unbelievable!
Which brings me onto betting on ‘the next manager’ markets in football. Anyone who gets involved in this is asking for trouble. Since Fabio Capello decided to leave England’s job, it was the fans and media who wanted Harry Redknapp – the wheeling dealing Tottenham Hotspur manager – to be the man in charge.
However, the English FA has never done things that the fans want and are now decided to go for Roy Hodgson. Hodgson is a nice enough fellow but he has the charisma of a back room office clerk. He is a journeyman who goes around but is never going to set the world on fire. The last time the English FA did such a mad move is when they would not give the England job to Brian Clough who was the best manager in England at the time.
Now with these next manager betting markets is all about inside information and it is clear that I have been hit so many times that it is untrue that I should know better. In one episode, I could not believe that Harry Redknapp would go back to Portsmouth after leaving them to go to Southampton their biggest rival. He did! Then I got hit big time when Alex McLeish left Birmingham City to go to Aston Villa. Again I could not see any upside to this move and this season has proved me right. I reckon Andy Lerner – the rich American owner of Aston Villa – was taking some serious drugs because there was no upside to Alex McLeish going to Aston Villa only doom and gloom.
So this time I have laid Roy Hodgson knowing full well that the people picking the next England manager have already made their money on laying Harry Redknapp and are just waiting to sucker some more money on laying Roy Hodgson before picking Harry Redknapp. It’s a double bluff my friend, but don’t put loads on as it will be squeaky bum time.