The Devil plays poker
Today is quite a big day in UK history because we could see the beginning of the change with the voting system used in the country’s democratic process. The reason for ths is that there is a X Factor/Strictly Come Dancing/Britains Got Talent type program on TV featuring the 3 main party leaders. Yesterday, I said that Nick Clegg, David Cameron and Gordon Brown all exhibit classic poker personalities. Now we will see how there personality play out in a televised political ‘mortal combat’.
I have said on numerous occasion that poker is psychological chess. it is not as precise as normal chess which is virtually a pure mathematical exercise. While poker is scientific it has a lot more random things chucked in which can throw a game by sheer luck. A bit like life its self, in which a curve ball can come right out of the blue and that upset the apple cart by letting the outsider become the certain winner. Politicians are notorious for managing that risk but sometimes no matter what they do the result will be the same.
In Britain they do not do revolutions, they do procedural motions from which revolutionary outcomes are produced. Tonight on Sky if Nick Clegg solidifies his postion as the ‘man for change’ and Gordon Brown subtlely promises to ‘resign’ it means that a grand alliance for the ‘progressive’ side of the political devide can be maintained to take out the Conservatives, then we will have seen a truly revolutionary event.
It is clear that Labour appear to be in third place in percentage of votes to be won, however, because of quirks of the voting system, Labour could end up in first place with the largest amount of seats in parliamnet. This is known in the poker world as a complete suck out in which a river card satisfy the massive odds needed to complete the zero to hero moment. If this did happen it would lead to a definite change in the political voting system because it is unsustainable,
If the Liberal Democrats maintain their present position and even increase their share of the vote they could be the biggest party, which they haven’t achieved for nearly 100 years! If they manage to be in the position to be the king maker in a hung parliament then they can achieve their goal of negotiating a change in the voting system which Gordon Brown has more or less guaranteed Labours support. The Conservatives have to win outright to make sure the system remains the same which basically means the David Cameron needs to up his table image as the dominate person and that he should not be messed with.
The only problem for David Cameron is that to do this, he then has too attack or bully both Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown. Overplaying his hands and getting caught with his trousers down – as they say in poker when a overly aggressive player gets caught out! David Cameron could be described as a massive chip leader that’s just lost a load of chips to Nick Clegg. His performance was so rubbish, he pulled faces at Nick Clegg which was weird and didn’t say anything substantive which said ‘he was a leader in waiting’. Technically he is still in first place but if Labour and the Liberal Democrats gang up on David Cameron or even the Lib Dems get a second wind of voters making them the biggest party then David Cameron has basically thrown away his chips.
Funnily enough David Cameron is not losing his chips because he is on ’tilt’ or playing recklessly. He is losing his chips because he has been caught out bluffing and was looking to bluff his way to the top. This was never going to happen as Gordon Brown is too strong and motivated player to be easily manouvered out of position. He may not have had the cards to play, but, he hates Cameron’s snobby attitude to Gordon Brown and Brown does not like been looked down at. If it means Brown resigning the Premiership in order to defeat the Conservatives – he will do it at the last moment. Therefore denying David Cameron his ultimate goal of being Premier. Never underestimate the revenge element in politics and part of the problem with Gordon Brown is that he hated being patronised by David Cameron and he holds a grudge- big time, ask Tony Blair!
So today’s debate is a must watch TV and I will be doing a live tweeting (pokerknave) commentary on this fascinating period of UK history.