Who are the gods of gambling?

When the gambling gods are against you two things happen. 1 You lose confidence and 2 you lose bets in which you are favourite to win.

The reason why confidence is first is that gambling should hurt. When you put a bet on you should be pretty confident that the bet has a reasonable chance pf winning or else why are you putting on the bet? So when you decide to gamble properly whether its cards, horses, football whatever, you should have evaluated the odds and decided that the outcome in your favour is worth the odds. If the odds are massively in your favour then you should add more stake because it will never always happen that you can bet when the odds are heavily in your favour. the only problem is when the bet loses then of course your money has gone. But at least you had the odds in your favour.

That’s why the bets should hurt when you lose. This hurting effect is good because it focuses the mind on the thing that you are betting on. Sometimes discretion is the better part of valour but when the odds are in your favour you must bet to win. Regretting not taking advantage of odds in your favour is a sin.

However, sometimes the gambling gods are against you and no matter what you do you will always come up a cropper. With me this period happens about the time of the moon. It is my menstrual period in effect. Please do not start chucking things at the computer monitor or fall of your chair in fits of laughter I am being totally serious. The Moon is my very own vengeful betting god and when the moon is in transition I could have a straight flush and I would be beaten by a higher straight flush. My football team could be 3 – 0 up and my team would lose 3 – 4 with all the opposition goals coming in the last 10 minutes of the game.

If your not convinced by my arguments well all I can say is religion is all about faith and I know what I know and you cannot change my mind as the evidence is conclusive.

I need to sit in the corner

I cant stop acting like an idiot! When I get onto a good thing I cannot help but push the self destruct button and ultimately act like an idiot.

This will not come as a surprise to some people as they ‘know’ that I am an idiot some time a go. What is galling for me is that, I know I am acting like an idiot.

The class example was after watching a donk play 6 2 unsuited and win a hand against K Q suited, I decided to get into a tangle with this guy. Of course he had 7 3 unsuited and I had A J suited. Obviously, he gets the straight. Now I knew that he was getting desperate and I knew the guy’s record, so why did I push him to go all in when I could have played nicely and get out of the hand when it became clear that I was going to lose that hand?

Another incident was yesterday when I was in mad head mood and decided to throw over a hundred pounds in a fixed odds betting terminal . Now as you can tell I hate these things with a passion, yet I did the most stupid act I have done for a long time and actually put money into these evil things. Yes i was bored, yes I had too much time on my hands, but what is a grown man doing putting hard earned cash into glorified one armed bandits?

Playing online poker is boring, betting on horses is boring, playing live poker is boring, watching football is going to get boring. So unless I can get my head straight and stop having reckless moments I will end up being a drunk as it is the only time that I do not do stupid things such as playing cartoon roulette machines connected to a central processing unit under the management of bookies who are as bent as any criminal known on planet Earth.

fixed odds betting terminal

The phenomena of fixed odds betting terminal (FOBT) has been sweeping the UK for years. They are basically machines which have roulette, cartoon races, blackjack etc to be played by a single individual. Now on the face of it they are no harm to man or beast but look at it closer they are the worst things ever for gamblers. I have in the past have referred to them as crack cocaine for gamblers.

Some may say that this is not Fair because they serve a purpose and that they are no different to gamblers who play casino or other online gambling games on a computer. This is true, however, the difference that I see with these machines is that their are becoming the main stay of bookies which make it easy for bookies to market to the ordinary punters and consequently easier to lose.

With online gambling it is sometimes a hassle to get to play the game you want to play because online betting firms are scared stiff of online fraud so they will accept money easily enough, but, are very reluctant to pay out too quickly which let the punter know that using a site maybe be more trouble than its worth.

With FOBT they operate on cash, there are no electronic paper trail and you do not have to be computer proficient to use them. Basically you stick your money in and watch the pretty pictures until you lose all your cash. The first game which really grabbed a hold of punters was cartoon racing. This could only go so far as the game could only replicate live horse racing to a point then it has no more fun than a fruit machine.  I have recounted a story many times about 3 guys in a bookie discussing in diligent and earnest discussion on the relevant merits of a cartoon jockey!!!? This was the most truly amazing scene ever and in my betting life i have seen many strange and wonderful things. I think the reason cartoon races are popular is that a 33/1 price on a horse has a genuine 1 in 33 chance (genuine in the sense that after the bookies cut there would be a roughly 3% chance of that horse winning). With real horse race a 33/1 shot may not be a genuine 33/1 shot it maybe 50/1, 100/1 or more. Therefore in relative terms you are getting value on the cartoon races.

FOBT’s really struck gold when they started doing roulette. Unlike real roulette there was no waiting time, no payout time. The game was run as quickly as the player could put there ‘chips’ on the numbers and each wheel spin was over in a flash. Cartoon roulette therefore gave the punter quick and easy way to lose money, while the bookie increased turnover without having to resort to extra staffing cost or bonuses to attract punters. With a built in 3% advantage there will be punters who will win now and then, put if they play the game over time the punter will always lose, its a no brainer.

Gamblers are terrible at leaving a winning game. Its not what most gamblers  do. The bookies know this that is why these machines are popular with the bookies. It makes it very difficult to walk away. The government recognise this and there is a stipulation that each betting office cannot have more than 4 machines in that office. I have talked to many betting managers and all have said that they would rather have FOBT than have to manage bets on sporting events especially bets from people like me who will always try to get an edge by using complicated maths to bamboozle the cashier who was never trained to do complex permutations and combinations therefore getting it wrong in my favour of me. If they get it wrong against me then i will complain, if they get it wrong in my favour then I will smile and walk away happy.

FOBT’s do not have that advantage. It is a ‘one-armed bandit’ for the 21st Century and we know what they did they robbed the punter with one arm. I was watching a young lad playing one of these  machines and he was placing massive bets on certain numbers, he lost repeatedly. We had a chat while I wrote out my bet for the football and he confessed that he had not eaten for 5 days! The guy was a wreck. I advised he to see a doctor as it is not helpful to his health not eating and to leave those machines alone as they will do more harm to him than anything in the world. FOBT will never be banned but if you catch yourself playing them then you are truly a mug and should not be left alone with money.

In the world of gambling heroes there is one name which gets hardly any mention and that name is Charles K McNeil. Charles K McNeil is the man that invented the points system that most bettors especially those in the United states have all taken part in one way or another. It is the system that leads to derivatives trading so in some way Charles K McNeil fundamentally altered the way the world world. In fact you could say that his methods nearly brought down the global economic system on September 15th 2008 when Lehman Brothers went belly up.

The thing about the points system is that it takes gambling from reality to fantasy. You do not bet on pure scores you bet on ‘scenarios’. For example if there is a football game between Brazil and the USA, obviously Brazil will be favourites so to make it a more attractive betting proposition for the bookmakers they will give USA a + 1.5 goal start. This means that Brazil will have to win by at least 2 clear goals (IE Brazil 4 – USA 2 = Brazil 4 – USA 3.5) for you to win. Conversely if Brazil win only 1 – 0 then you would have lost the bet because USA would have the ’0.5′ advantage (Brazil 1 – USA 1.5). The prices will reflect this fact, and, they are usually 10/11 either the team.  The reason they are not even is that the bookie gets his cut because the underdogs – in this case the USA – get extra goals to even up the game.

Charles K McNeil method is used in all sorts of arenas anything from basketball to gold prices to bank rates. In fact you could use it for anything and that includes poker. The only thing about poker that would make it a bit problematic is that you are dealing with devious people and the best poker players have a reasonable mathematical understanding of odds. Just think you could create a spread about a player winning and losing but if that player could make more money on losing then they would probably do this. It is part of a poker player mentality to be a bit shady in what they say on the table – its called bluff.

If there was a spread book on poker players it would have to be without the players knowledge and stakes would have to be limited so that money pouring onto a player would not be sufficient to make it worth theirs or anyone’s time and effort to manipulate the situation and make more money off the table than on it!

As you may of guess I am leading up to something with this post, in fact it is two things, and, the first is this. Why not have a  comprehensive price list of all the players in the final stages of all major poker competition? This could be done in the same way that stock and shares operate and on paper there are enough information on all poker players to make it open and transparent. There are markets already but if the last WSOP (2009) was anything to go by, it was fairly limited and was in fact pretty poor. Surely it is not beyond the wit of those operators in Las Vegas or London to run such an operation?

As i found out on one of the sites where I play some no mark had a go at me for being a fish. he found some figures about my pre-flop action and deduced that I was a fish. Well that got me going and consequently we had a row on the table. I know that in the past I railed against people typing messages as pathetic and juvenile, but I was bored and cantankerous and I thought why not. It didn’t work out for me as it clouded my judgement – which is pretty suspect at the best of time – and I egged the table bitch to take my bluff and it cost me…

So when I calmed down, I started to look at the various poker stats and decided it would make a great idea for some betting method all the year round in which punters such as me could speculate on other players and make or lose money. Just think if you know a player is running hot and the cards are smacking him/her in the face then you would buy. If that same player has hit a flat spot and has turned into a super fish then you sell! if a player has been fishing and their price has dropped to the bottom, it may be time to start buying that person.

Yes you will get your flash in the pan’s, as there are loads of players who were running hot and are now cold as the Arctic. But that would be the fun of it since it is all about the strength of mind and the ability to learn from their mistakes or the deepness of their pockets. This would be great for online poker players since the ability to gain a ’tell’ is so much harder.

 The second thing that would be a good idea is a film about Charles K McNeil. On paper it may sound dull as ditch water but Charles K McNeil started a new method of trading which is now so wide spread that even governments are doing it. Also he changed the way people bet and in doing so had to deal with organised criminals who wanted to own his brain. Apparently Charles K McNeil went from being a teacher to mathematic operator and he claimed to have been in profit 25 out of 27 years averaging $200,000 per week in bets – now thats what I call a gambler!

Haunted by the ex-girlfriend

Its a bad poker player that blames random external things for the reason that he or she loses spectacularly on the poker tables. Well, I must fit that bill because I truly believe that certain things, people, or astrophysical happenings can affect your luck. If this is not the case why did the Romans devise a word for mad stuff happening when there is a full moon?

The word lunatic has its roots from the Roman word for the Moon and it is luna. Women’s menstruation period is in time with the Moon cycle, waves are dependent on the moon so why not peoples mood swings?

In the licensing trade a publican has a monthly stress cycle when there is a full moon because people act like nutters when they are drunk when the moon is full in the sky. Hospitals report a monthly spike when there is a full moon. So do the police and from what I understand the hooligans in the police force sometimes request for duty when the moon is out and about, as it gives them a chance to take out their pent up anger on the miscreants.

Anyway back to the main theme of this post. I experienced the effect of a person bringing bad luck to my game. In this instance an ex girlfriend who was more than fit but had a very bad temper and even worst luck. she worked in a bookie – where I met her, and, was forever bringing a downer on my betting and drinking. This was a bit of a problem since I met her in a betting office, where she worked, and, I was a pub manager at the time!

I can talk about her without any comebacks because she hated the idea that I wrote about poker since she has a deep seated hatred of gambling and subsequently will not be reading this post. But knowing my luck she will look at the website out of curiosity and see this post and stick a knife in me the next time she sees me – and I am not joking about sticking a knife in me! She once tried to bash my head in with a baseball bat I kept as a welcoming present for burglars. Luckily I managed to disarm her and keep her on lockdown until she calmed down.

The minute she said hello I dropped my McDonalds chicken wrap which I just brought. I should have said hello and goodbye leaving my phone number if she ever gets lonely, and, run as fast as I can from betting offices and poker tables until it was safe to come out of the woodwork before I dabble in the sports/cards market. Unfortunately, she looked extremely hot even in the unflattering uniform she has to wear .

I ended up chatting about this that and another. While I was doing that I had a bet on several dogs and each got beaten in a very sick manner. In the end she did not want to come a drink as it goes to her head and she wanted to get home. After trying unsuccessfully to arrange a hook up I decided the next best thing was a game of live poker – bad move!

I literally did not get a hand to get my chips in. I slowly lost my chips because of the big blind allied with rubbish starting hands like 7-4 suited or 9-2 off suit. When I finally got a decent hand (JJ’s) while on the button. I gone in with my solitary 1000 chips got called and when we  turned over my rival had A-5 suited against my JJ’s. Obviously he got the ace and I was sent packing.

Of course this was down to me meeting with my ex. She works in a betting office but hates everything about gambling. Once the evil eye makes a move you are truly kebab-ed.

The news that Isildur1 is back on the high stakes online poker table at Full Tilt, has got the hearts and mind of the blogosphere all a twitter. Who is he or her? What is he? Where does he get his money from?

Well I can tell you from my observations and reading between the lines that:

a) Its more thaan 1 person.

2) Its a marketing ploy.

You may find my first asumption quite real but the second a bit contentious. Well the reason why it is or I should say a marketing ploy is that having major big games online will eventually lead to the ‘whales’ finally giving up playing live casino – where they can be recognise, and, start to play online casino where they can remain anonymous.

You can tell that online casino is the big thing for online betting because there is no restriction to the hours and frequency of visits. A visit to a online casino can happen while a person is using the toilet, on a train journey etc. The thing that scares people from online casino is whether it is fixed!

At the moment online casino is seen as very dodgy, so the need for great publicity is paramount. In the UK we have betting offices, shops where you can go and place a bet on horses, football etc. In these shops they have machines called fixed odds betting terminals or fobts’. These machines are online casino machines, and, are like crack cocaine for gamblers.

 Instead of waiting 10 - 15 minutes for the next race etc, you can have a bet every 10 - 15 seconds! The most popular game on these fobts’ is cartoon roulette and they are just massive cash generators which can have automatic re-load so you can play the same number/s again and again without going through the rigmarole of physically putting chips on. 

A friend who is a betting office manager said to me that if his bosses had their way they would get rid of betting on football etc and have the shop filled up with these fobts’. Now imagine a world where you can have your own personal fobt? Yes we have them now but you can tell by the bonuses that are offered that people are not rushing to join them. Yes the are making money but the competition for casino players is tough.

Can you imagine if those whales got onto online casino losing 3% profit per spin every 20 – 30 seconds – happy days for the online casino owner!

Hence my supposition that isildur1 is a marketing move because as soon as this gets into the main stream media – which it hasn’t as yet – then there will be media frenzy to know and plau against this person. Onviously the more the online poker sites can keep the real name/s out of the public arena the better.

Who is isildur1? Who cares, as long as we don’t know the better for the online casino brands.

Rage Against The Machine Xmas No1

Amazing scenes with Rage Against The Machine getting to number 1 in the pop charts. If the good people of the UK had followed The Magical Tipster not only did they do some good for society they would have also made some handsome profits which they will no doubt make a contribution to the charity Shelter.

It’s great when you earn money, do good for society and stick it to the ‘man’ . Maybe this should be a regular occurrence when betting on Specials Market, buy the record/make phone call etc on a complete outsider but then place half the amount onto the outsider and make a killing…

The good for society it would kill the reality tv concept stone dead, you would make a shed load of money because the price fluctuations would be enough for punters to jump on board especially the insiders who usually make a killing on these markets and it would really upset the producers of these programs as they would see that the ‘great unwashed’ are gerrymandering their trashy programs. Something of a plan methinks.

The other thing to do when bored with poker is to watch our great leaders getting the script wrong and we start with the ‘Benny Hill’ of politics Mr Silvio Berlusconi. Now Silvio is a bit of a playboy/megalomaniac/hard man of Italian politics who portrays himself as a testosterone fueled demigod  who is above the law and is some sort of superman. However when a mental patient smacked him in the mouth with a statue he stayed in hospital for 4 days with a fractured nose and cracked teeth – so much for the warrior prince!

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Werewolf or a woman with PMT

A new report from The Medical Journal of Australia confirm my view that full moons mean trouble. In the article they did some research that showed that violence increased and the nature of violence changed when there is a full moon.

This is not new the Roman word for moon is Luna and it is also where the word lunatic comes from ie mad behavior is caused by the moon. Womens pre-menstural tension is also related to the moon which can be a source of grief as many men can tell you.

Landlords of pubs will tell you that the time to get grief is when there is a full moon. Doormen also testify to this and so will gamblers.

Time and time again weird and wonderful behavior accure when playing poker, betting on sporting events. As a rule avoid tempremental animals and dont drink when there is a full moon should be the unwritten law for all gamblers.

Why am I writing this today well in my pursuit to get more money on Rage Against The Machine and being thwarted, I rejected 3 major winning bets. Accrington Stanley to beat Notts County (9/2, 5.5), Joe beating Olly for X Factor (7/4, 2.75) and Ryan Giggs becoming BBC Sportsman of The Year (7/2, 4.5) and I blame the moon, not my stupidity.

This stupidity ‘insight’ led me to play some serious online poker and guess what I lost seriously. Can I blame it on the full moon – you betcha!

Antoine Saout

The big event on Saturday is set to start 12 noon (Pacific Time) and I have been given a surprise tip by Magical Tipser – it is Antoine Saout.

He is the 25 year old Frenchman who is the surprise package in this years final and subsequently he is a big price (18/1 on Betfair). As the rank outsider he is expected to be one of the first to be knocked out, however, do not be surprised if he stays in a lot longer than most people think.

Apparently he has been practicing very hard by playing in all sorts of tournaments and seems to have a lot of stamina which is needed for such competition.

James Akenhead – come into the calculations as another big price (15/1) but he is also short stacked and he too will need a miracle, but sometimes miracles do happen.

http://www.dailymotion.com/videox8tz8lThe Political Special Edition – in which the UK MP’s take leave of their senses and decide to give themselves a massive pay rise on April Fools Day. Someone has decided to sell the MP’s expenses details for £300,000, and, Barack Obama flies into the UK to save the world.

We at pokerknave.com cannot knock President Obama because we tipped him at 4/5 (1.8) in August 2008 (check out our Twitter account – pokerknave) and he stormed in making the Autumn/Winter 2008 very enjoyable indeed.