Tags: Alistair darling, betting, david cameron, labour, Referendum, Scotland, The magical tipster
Posted in PokerKnave's Blog | No Comments
The market on the referendum has been one of the best the bookies have ever seen, with some hefty bets piling on the NO campaign. However, with the polls showing a mathematical 50:50 split the price of 1/4 NO is crying to be layed. Apparently you can get 4/1 on YES which is to be backed whatever the outcome. Just because some heavy bets have gone on the NO result does not mean that it is a done deal.
The YES campaign are seriously motivated. They are pushing for the win and seem to be on a roll. Yes sophisticated polling figures still see the NO campaign is in the lead, and, it is usually people who do not want to voice unpopular (ie they will vote NO) opinions who say that they dont know. However, with a shower of rain predicted and with young people looking to rebel along with diehard Labour former voters this is not a 80% NO result. There are better 1/4 shots out there and along with The Magical Tipster putting money on YES seems the only reasonable bet.
By the way I hope the Scots vote NO but I cannot let go of a risky but 50/50 bet it would be rude not to have a bet. Especially when you see that David Cameron is the Prime Minister and has the leadership quality of a headless chicken. David Cameron oozes entitlement and superiority and that is why people cannot stand him. The only ones that think he should be leading the country are those that will benefit the most from him and his warped sense of priorities.
Hence he could not win the 2010 election from a position in which he only had to appear sincere and genuine and now is on the verge of losing Scotland which had a 20+ percentage lead at the beginning of the referendum campaign period. Obviously he will blame Alistair Darling, but come on Alistair Darling is not the most exciting politician you will ever meet. He is more of a team supporter/player, not leader. They now have had to bring in Gordon Brown – who was apparently the worst person ever according to David Cameron – to get the Labour supporters back and shore up the NO campaign. Then to top it all Queen Elizabeth II has been roped in which is very controversial, constitutionally.
Losing from winning position has become endemic for the Conservative Party and now they have the possibility of losing a third of the country.