Richard Nixon

Guilt is a terrible thing and will always come back to take charge if not resolved. So at the moment in the UK after the funeral of Baroness Thatcher the Tory party are about to fully visualise what they think Margaret Thatcher want – an exit out of the European Union! 

Meanwhile over in the USA the right wing are going through their usual hunt for a Democratic scandal which will eclipse the Watergate and Iran-Contra scandal. At the moment they have Benghazi and are looking to make a noise over the death of four diplomats and whether politicians tried to minimise the terror attack.  When President Clinton was in office it was Whitewater, China and Lewinski so here is to the usual hyperbole which when it finally settles will never eclipse Watergate or Iran-Contra. I could be wrong however!

The guilt that the right wing feel is always more powerful than left wing guilt. The left wing are always trying to help people out of bad situations. The right wing aim to exploit bad situations so when it does go wrong there is more to feel guilty about, for the right winger. 

There has been numerous situation in which left wing politicians get caught up in sex scandals yet they never really stick. However, when the right wing get in sex scandals it just seem so much more tacky and yucky because they are always going on about the lesser classes of humans have no morals therefore they should be denounced and denigrated. Obviously they thinking behind the right wing agenda is to get non thinking right wingers to support their cause because their identity is different.  

With left wing guilt do go into hyper-space it is usually down to money. You can have as many lovers as you want. You can be such a drunk that you cannot stand up without help, but, get caught out fiddling or being bought and sold like a prostitute and you can kiss your political career goodbye. As Deep Throat said in the Watergate Scandal follow the money. 

Obama will fall if there is a money trail which links him to something fishy or dodgy. If there is no money trail then there will not be a scandal. Looking for a mole leaking information to Associated Press is not a scandal. Checking the tax affairs of your rivals is not a scandal. Getting blind-sided by a bunch of radicals kicking off all over the Middle East is not a scandal. Having his fingers in the till could be a scandal if the Republicans can prove it.

Meanwhile in the UK Nigel Farage and Margaret Thatcher are about to pull off the biggest political earthquake since Lehmans Day. The Conservatives are about to push for an in/out referendum for the European Union. Margaret Thatcher maybe dead but it is the guilt of political matricide which has kept the Tories in funk for over 20 years. The reason she was kicked out was her negotiation stand on Europe. She did not trust the Germans and hated the idea of greater political union.

Her problem was that she could not tolerate a more nuanced negotiation position or the fact that Nigel Lawson was shadowing the Deutsche Mark which was tantamount to operating a fiscal union à la carte. Obviously Margaret Thatcher would not be happy with this type of policy and Nigel Lawson left government in a hissy fit about being basically told off in front of people.

Now Nigel Lawson has come out in favour of leaving the E.U and those who support being members of the E.U have nowhere to turn as the vehemence of the ‘get out’ campaign is deafening. Nigel Farage the leader of the main anti-EU party is already doing deals not to run candidates against anti-EU Conservative party candidates. This is amazing! It is a bit like the Labour Party – Liberal Democrats non hostile tactic of 1997 to get rid of 18 years of Tory rule.

The result of all these machinations will probably lead to loads of talking points, hue and cry and not much else. Big business will want to stay in the EU because it is good for business and Hilary Clinton will win 2016 Presidency because the right wing media in the US will go overboard in their criticism.

Hillary Clinton As A Poker Player

To define Hillary Clinton as a poker player would be equivalent of describing Barbara Streisand as a singer of songs. Yes Hillary Clinton knows how to make moves and play her cards correctly, but she is a bit more than that. In fact she would be more like a chess Grand Master, rocket scientist and a poker player all wrapped in one.

Her power partnership with Bill Clinton shaped the politics of the USA and probably the World in the same way that F.D and Eleanor  Roosevelt and shaped the World in the 1940′s. Partly in the opposition they illicit and partly from the policies they pursued they managed to dominate the political scene for the last 20 years.

The first real sense that Hillary Clinton had a great poker face was when she was required to support Bill Clinton when the opposition tried to impeach him for the Monica Lewinsky affair. If she had stuck the knife into Bill Clinton by basically being angry with Bill Clinton in public he was finished. However, she turned it around by saying it ”….was a vast right wing conspiracy….” that Bill Clinton was facing and the impeachment was a scam. 

Clearly this was not the play that the opposition was wanting. She already stated that she was not a Tammy Wynette type of figure and here she was standing by her man. The opposition never realised that she had ambitions herself and she needed a knave by her side to do the dirty work when it was needed and there was no one better that ”…the great communicator….” Bill Clinton to be that man. Hillary Clinton was playing the long game.

She did get blindsided when Barack Obama came on the scene and took away the Presidency that she would have truly won because after Lehman’s Day, any Democrat would have been President since the Republicans, party of low government expenses and anti-socialist policy, effectively ripped up their mission statement and raised spending massively and nationalised the financial industry in the US. Not only did they nationalise the industry but the brought in a policy which privatised profits but socialised losses, a new and incredibly stupid policy.

Now that Obama has won a second term. Hillary Clinton has been hailed as a brilliant Secretary of State and is in pole position to be President. The Republican Party is in disarray  the Democrats are in the mood to elect the first woman President of the USA and only ”….fate of god….” can stop her becoming President in 2016.

In poker terms she would have been chip leader 1996, almost down and out extremely short stacked in 1998, chip leader 2004, short stacked in 2008 and now once again chip leader 2012. Will she once again be short stacked? Based on her track record yes she will, However, this time she has some really big favours to call in Bill Clinton and Barack Obama! Bill Clinton obviously as she saved his presidency and Barack Obama for Bill Clinton destroying the Republicans after they continuously called him a great President and saying Obama could not match up to Bill Clinton’s brilliance. When Bill Clinton went to the Democratic convention of 2012 and spent several minutes tearing down the Republican fiscal and world view it was a master class of how to explain a political argument which everyone can understand. Barack Obama did not have to do much except get out the vote, which he did in buckets.

Therefore Hillary Clinton is a grinder. A grinder that ran into a few ”all in” merchants and survived. Now that she is well in the lead with the American public can their truly be a challenger with a greater vision than having the first female President of the USA? I am 80% sure she will be President and the only thing that could get in her way would be ill health and or a stupid move such as Mitt Romney ’47% ‘video. Somehow I see Hillary Clinton being too focused for such a mistake.

Poker Totty Michelle G supports Obama

This 2012 election to get the next President of the USA is truly a wonder to behold. The two important issues are 1. Which one of the Poker Tottys will be on the winning side? At the moment the polls are showing it for Poker Totty Michelle G, although Poker Totty Shahna is not in bad shape with the possibility of a successful voter suppression campaign in various states.

The second big question is whether Nate Silver will augment his position as the greatest polling guru of his generation? For a very long time Nate Silver has been calling this for Obama with 80% certainty. This has enraged Romney’s supporters who have been questioning the validity of the polls, the numbers, the methodology, media bias the lot. 

In fact when I replied to a post about Romney winning in a landslide I suggested to the person that he should take advantage of the 2/1 widely available on a Romney win. A reply I got not only intrigued me but completely surprised me and I had to reply that yes I was wrong about the 2/1, it should be more than that and right now Romney is 3/1+ to win! When was the last time that with overwhelming  certainty of an outcome can you get 3/1? If the Romney activist are so convinced that Romney is cruising to victory, why not take up the chance to QUADRUPLE YOUR MONEY in 24 hours?

Obviously it is rubbish they are talking about and going from forum to forum typing stuff which they clearly do not believe in is both mindless and pointless, unless the rumours are true that some of the internet posters are being paid to write post. Clearly this happens with people who work in the SEO business but in the political world I would not be surprised that there are people being paid to write stuff and create a ‘internet buzz’ on whatever topic needing that buzz.

So at the moment Nate Silver is saying that Obama will win and will win with over 300 electoral votes and 50.6% of the popular vote. This is a big call but if he is right he can basically write his own check for any sort of polling work he wants to do in the future.

So while we wait to see how the Republicans try and steal the elections check out the last time such an audacious attempt to rob the people of their democratic right was successful with Radiohead’s ‘Hail to The Thief’. Bush v Gore 2000 will be an object lesson on why voting is very important and a crushing critique on those who want to make it more difficult for people to vote.

Radiohead – Hail to the Thief

1. 2 + 2 = 5 (The Lukewarm.) - 0:00

2. Sit Down. Stand Up. (Snakes and Ladders.) - 3:19

3. Sail to the Moon. (Brush The Cobwebs Out Of The Sky.) - 7:38

4. Backdrifts. (Honeymoon Is Over.) - 11:58

5. Go To Sleep. (Little Man Being Erased.) - 17:20

6. Where I End And You Begin. (The Sky Is Falling In.) - 20:41

7. We Suck Young Blood. (Your Time Is Up.) - 25:11

8. The Gloaming. (Softly Open Our Mouths In The Cold.) - 30:02

9. There There. (The Boney King Of Nowhere.) - 33:36

10. I Will. (No Man’s Land.) - 38:53

11. A Punchup At A Wedding. (No No No No No No No No.) - 40:55

12. Myxomatosis. (Judge, Jury And Executioner.) - 45:52

13. Scatterbrain. (As Dead As Leaves.) - 49:43

14. A Wolf At The Door. (It Girl. Rag Doll.) - 53:05

****Election 2012 Drinking Game****

If you do not want to listen to Radiohead and just want to watch the drama of the election, maybe you could spice it up with a drinking game based on the clichés and sound bites that will undoubtedly be mentioned. The phrases I will be drinking to are:

‘To close to call’ – 1/2 a shot (this will be a constant theme so you could be drunk in a hour).

‘In the battleground states’ – 1/2 a shot.

‘We call this for Romney’ – 1 shots.

‘We call this for Obama’ – 1 shot.

Happy drinking!

Mitt Romney

The race for the White House has solidified that Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican nominee! I had a bet that Mitt Romney would have bowed out and Paul Ryan would go forward as the GOP nominee. Yes, it was a punt and yea I managed to trade locking in my money back with the outside chance of picking up £1,600+ for an original £2.65 bet.

That £2,65 risk was is the price of a pint of Guinness. The fact I got it back with £0.03 profit with the added benefit that if it did happen – very unlikely, I would pick up the price of a week in Ibiza at Christmas. Why not have a go? I buy lottery tickets which I hope will win a Autumn hamper. Basically I throw money away on trying to predict 6 number out of 49. I have more chance of being struck by lightning twice than win the lottery, yet I do it.

So with Mitt Romney getting 67% of the view on CNN, that he won the first debate means he sticks in the race and my bet which is not entirely finished, but, it is in a critical position. I always knew Mitt Romney would come out raging and fired up. You do not become a nominee by not being fired up. However, if there is a  sudden accident, or a sex tape featuring teenage boys scenario turns up, then things could change again.

It was  a weird coincidence that a tape attacking Islam gets prominence on Youtube on the 9/11 anniversary remembrance this year, which then led to people getting killed! These things always seem to happen. Just sayin!

During the 2004 election do you remember the Osama bin Laden tape which came out saying to  vote against President Bush? That was to help President Bush!

In political terms this is the World Cup Final of politics and Romney is leading 1 – 1 after the first half. Yes, leading 1 – 1! Therefore he is now in the position in which Obama has to attack, in the second half to secure victory. Obama has a good ground game, but, Romneys’ side has a very fired up base and could also develop a good ground game. We all remember the TEA Party rallies, completely bonkers and stupid but effective.

So now Obama has to put Romney in his place. Apparently during the debate, Romney dropped policies, came up with stats that do not make sense and just kept saying believe what I am saying and don’t listen to reason or facts. I am taking the US  cabal TV analysis for this view as I had fallen a sleep while waiting to watch the debate. Fact checking are for wimps was the essence of Romney’s debate approach!

For an outsider this is fascinating, that’s why I love US politics. In a way this is a big election because Mitt Romney has no core beliefs to drive him to be President , just that he wants to be President. You do not have so many changed positions without people noticing and this debate will be fact checked until the cows come home. I missed the debate but really and truly unless Mitt Romney actually ‘puked all’ over himself like Rick Perry, he was going to be the nominee. Now I will have to look at another hail Mary type zinger bet to have a chance to pit my analysis against the US betting public.

If the polls tighten then it makes my fun a little bit more interesting. Could Obama win North Carolina? Can Romney win Ohio? These odds may fluctuate wildly over the next couple of days and I will sure take an interest when they do. Bring forth the guillotine!

The Paul Ryan v Joe Biden debate should be really interesting. Paul Ryan is looking to knock Joe Biden out and place himself as top dog of the GOP. If he does so then he will be in great position for 2016. Joe Biden could spring a surprise and win it for President Obama by locking Paul Ryan on facts and figures. Paul Ryan is so dodgy when it comes to facts and figures that it could get him in all sorts of trouble. But, as an Ayn Rand devotee, Paul Ryan could not give a toss. Objectivism means being selfish is a great thing. So, the debate maybe more interesting than the 3 Presidential debate put together.

Cassandra

On August 30th 2012, I made a bet that Paul Ryan could be the Republican nominee for President of The United States of America! A bit of a wild call, but I backed it up by betting £2.86 at 879/1, which is basically the price of a pint. 

I then compounded my views with a piece on Ann Romney and the look she had on her face after the infamous speech by Clint Eastwood and the empty ‘chair‘. It was clear to me that Mitt Romney was not going to run a campaign based on policy, he was running a marketing campaign in which Mitt Romney was a brand and he was saying his brand was better than Barack Obama’s brand. The chair incident made it clear that the Romney brand was not enough and he was going to have the biggest failure of his life and Ann Romney definitely did not want to be on that side, hence the look.

Most of the people I know who follow U.S politics in the U.K laughed and said I wasted a ‘beer token’ on a non-event. However, someone unexpected came to my defence and publicly called for a Paul Ryan/Marco Rubio ticket for the 2012 election. William Kristol the conservative writer said in a article ”A Note on Romney’s Arrogant and Stupid Remarks”  that Romney should step down and let Ryan-Rubio ticket go forward to the election for President 2012!  If this guy is talking like this, then those within the Republican/Grand Ol’ Party establishment must also be talking about this and this has been backed up by someone taking a huge chunk of bets at 149/1 and better.

Having laid some off so that I can get my ‘beer token’ back (the princely sum of £2.86) I am now sitting on a potential £1,600+ profit if the most devastating political act was to happen. If it did happen then it would create ructions and an upheaval that could put Ryan in the Whitehouse as the Republican base would be so fired up as they would have the first ‘objectivist’ in the Whitehouse.  Amazing times indeed!

Ann Romney Look Of Disgust At Clint Eastwood

The look says it all! Is this the time that Ann Romney knew that the game was up? How can her husband carry on when all around him the sub-ordinates are actively positioning themselves to run for President in 2016? By positioning themselves for 2016 it is clear that they know in their heart that Mitt Romney cannot win 2012. Only the die hard Obama haters will continue because they would do anything to get rid of President Obama and nothing will stop their hatred not even the truth or facts. 

When Clint Eastwood made his improv monologue he looked and acted like a someone with a serious mental illness. This could not have been planned as a good thing, why would you let your biggest moment of your personal and political life be held by a guy who looked like he just got of bed and decided to wear an ill fitting suit to introduce the potential next President? Someone knew this and let it happened. They wanted to destroy the message of the Republican nominee and in effect the leader of the Republican party. 

Now I let you into a not so little secret, I wanted Rick Santorum to be the nominee because I had a small bet on him at massive odds. My thinking was that the Republican party have had a collective mental breakdown since Lehman’s Day 2008 when the banking system went into total collapse and the government was forced to do what they said they would never do and intervene into the markets to make sure the ATM’s still worked. If they didn’t then the whole economic system would have gone into meltdown and civil war would have broken out.

In effect they ripped up the doctrine of Ronald Regan and became a communist government – as they would see it! Their leader was George W Bush aided and abetted by the most right wing backroom staff ever, which was marshalled by Dick Cheney. This led to utter and complete confusion for many true believers and they just have not got over it. On top of that, the country then voted for a guy with the name Barack Hussein Obama to be the President which completely done their heads in and this all happened 40 years after Martin Luther King jr was assassinated. 

So after they gained some composure they set out to ‘take their country back’. It meant doing anything and everything to destroy Obama and bring in someone to restore order and the Ancien Régime – as they see it! However, some within the party knew that Obama is a formidable campaigner and did not want to take on an incumbent with the mass appeal of Obama. They know that the country was left in a disastrous state that even Hank Paulson told George W. Bush to give him the trillions of dollars, but don’t ask any questions about what he was going to do with it. Why, because it would not have been very popular and would cause resentment and not entirely resolve the problem with the economy. 

When the primaries got started it was clear that all the sensible candidates would not take part. Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels and even Paul Ryan, who I had a small bet on in the beginning, trading out when it was profitable. So the only half sensible candidate was Mitt Romney the rest were clowns and performance artist. The only one that could be sensible was Rick Santorum but his politics was so conservative that it was seen as a turn off to the independents.

Now looking back I bet those who really believe in banning rape in all cases and even going back to the gold standard wish they had gone for Rick Santorum. Hence this is why I think that Mitt Romney is not leading the party, the party is leading him. He is not in control of his party. Apparatchiks are running the show, that’s why Paul Ryan could go on stage and blatantly lie and not produce any ideas or policy for the public. Mitt Romney cannot tell Paul Ryan what to do. 

After the disastrous foreign tour and now a disastrous convention, any pretence that Romney is fit to lead goes straight out of the window. He is the nominee in name only. So this is the question. If Ann Romney want to see her husband completely and totally humiliated then she will let him continue in the process – not humiliated by not winning, but demeaned by the people on the inside who want him to lose? The country will not be put right in another four years. Even Paul Ryan’s plan is talking about a 20+ year period before it will be in credit. So the objectivist and others around him do not mind Obama being in charge for four more years as he is more or less doing what they would do.

Mitt Romney cannot be happy with the lies that are said in his name. It is so blatant and unwarranted. Even the joke about Obama’s birth must have been stomach churning. The only person that can stop Mitt Romney is his wife. She has to tell him the truth about what is going on and tell him that let Paul Ryan take the the fight to Obama without him. One way or another he must get out. Anything else will destroy him as a human being as he cannot in his heart want to be the guard that lets the lunatics take over the asylum. My bet on Paul Ryan still stands!

Clint Eastwood - The Outlaw Josey Wales

Clint Eastwood RNC Speech (COMPLETE): Actor Assails Obama

It was brilliant to watch! Almost like a Monty Python sketch on acid tabs. Clint Eastwood completely over turned the concept of a political endorsement. The 82 year old went on the Republican stage and attacked the leaders who did not consult with Russia about Afghanistan – Clint blamed Obama but it was Bush who went into war with the Taliban. He attacked Gitmo not realising the GOP loved Gitmo. He then had a rather touching conversation with an empty chair which represented President Obama. It was like you walked into a mind of someone who has completely lost the plot and was desperate to explain why he is not sure why he has lost the plot.

For sometime it has been clear that Lehman’s Day 2008 did more damage to America than just them losing a lot of money. It scared the bejesus out of what they once held dear. Certain sections of society thought nothing would get in the way of Ronald Regan’s voodoo economics, but it did when the banks decided that casino betting was better than traditional banking – and they went for it! Now we have a group of people who will say anything and do anything that will make them feel better so when Paul Ryan makes a bid for the leadership of the Grand Ol’ Party 2012 by basically lying (lying so much that even a Fox News corresponded had to call it dishonest and wrong), he is now being bet on (primarily by yours truly) because anything can happen between now and November 6th!

Clint Eastwood finally proved my point when he went on stage and did some sort of Dada inspired monologue which was both embarrassing, funny and totally irrelevant to the issues of the day. Please watch the video it is an amazing piece of cruel entertainment from an icon of Americana. I had to stop playing poker to watch it in shock. Afterwards I put another couple of pounds on Paul Ryan being elected President 2012 at 899/1.

Paul Ryan

Not in 2016, but, in 2012? Why not!? As I understand it, the position of the Vice President of the USA is that if anything happens to The President, the next person in line is the Vice President. So if Romney pulls out of the race for President, technically the Vice President would more or less be guaranteed that he would be leader of the party and effectively the person looking to be President, therefore if he gets the most electoral votes then the former Vice President nominee would effectively be President!

Have a little flutter on Paul Ryan being elected President 2012!  

Ann Romney

Basically the Republicans are saying vote for Romney but we are not going to do anything which is not similar to President Obama. Please don’t ask what we are going to do as we cannot tell you as our opponents will use it against us. However, Mitt Romney is a nice chap so you can trust him. And…,that’s it!

Is this really how democracy supposed to work? The Ron Paul supporters have walked out because they are not allowed to say what they want. What were they going to say that was so scary and radical? They wanted to say they support Ron Paul which the last time I heard was not some raving deranged socio-path.

He may have or had interesting ideas but he certainly didn’t want to start a war and really be hateful and damaging to the Republican cause. In fact previously he was so nice to Romney that he people thought he was running as a running mate to Mitt Romneyl! 

There are big big questions such as climate change, world hunger, the Greek/Euro economic crisis, Afghanistan, Syria etc etc, and, the answer is from the Republicans is, Mitt Romney is a nice guy???!!! 

Wow this is truly scary. At the moment Mitt Romney has 42 – 46% of the electorate. He could get elected on a ticket that Mitt Romney is a nice guy? Don’t ask him any policy as he will more or less do the same as Obama. The Republicans are saying ”….We will only change on some subjects such as ”we may not believe in climate change although we may change our mind late on….” Ok they are not direct quotes but you get my drift. It is scary that these are the answers that people are happy to voting on.

AMAZING!

Paul Ryan

It is further evidence that Mitt Romney is a lousy poker player when he picked Paul Ryan as his Vice-President. By all accounts Paul Ryan is a Ayn Rand worshipping, policy wonky head. He eats breathe and sleeps politics! Yes, he looks like that nice guy down the road who runs the sub post office, but in his heart he is a rock hard extreme objectivist, who believes that society does not really exist and certainly there should not be any government social programs that would help for the poor.

Previously, I gave what I thought valid reason on why Romney is not cut out for politics. Politics is poker for sociopaths and althouth he maybe a sociopath he is not that deluded to want to believe everything he says. In this respect he is a bit like Obama but without the natural charm of someone who had to be charming to get ahead. So Romney tried to co-opt some charm and got Paul Ryan onboard to give him that charm. However, this then begs the question who’s policy will get to be on the table if Romney becomes President.

We have enough evidence of what Paul Ryan thinks. He would want to:  

1) Remodel Medicare to change it to a voucher system,

2) Gut the social safety net,

3) Give big tax cuts to the wealthy,

4) Have a balanced budget by 2040.

On the face of it no one sensible would want to vote for this as it looks like austerity for austerity sake. It is clear that it does nothing for the middle class and the poor, it certainly does nothing for the nation and it is ideology for ideology sake. Clearly a person who has no empathy for his fellow countryman  has drawn this up. 

So why is it been taken seriously? Well it is all to do with Paul Ryan as a person. He has puppy dog eyes and an easy smile. Basically he is the sort of person people feel comfortable having a drink with, unlike Mitt Romney who appears to be created in some robotic lab. He also has a back ground story which helps him with the sympathy vote in that his dad died when he was young and he had to grow up quickly. The fact that he used social security to help him grow up quickly does not help Ryan to realise that what was good for him maybe good for other people. Just like Ayn Rand his hero, who used social security and Medicare to help herself out when things got bad.

Objectivism or extreme selfishness, is OK when your health and strength is great but when things go wrong or your luck runs out for you, it has about as much use as a rabid dog in a school yard full of kids. The Paul Ryan Plan allied with Mitt Romney’s dodgyness when it comes to tax clearly cannot be the choice of the US this November. Why would the vast majority of the nation (95% of the population) go out of there way to make themselves more poor for the sake of making themselves poor? It absolutely makes no sense whatsoever!

The only way Romney and Ryan can win this is if the left and progressives go mad and start to demonstrate in a nasty way to Paul Ryan. He is a consummate campaigner and knows how to charm people by making them believe that he has their interest at heart with soft soap selling and diversion from the real agenda. The guy is dangerous! If Newt Gingrich of all people can call his ideas ”right wing social engineering” you know there is something fundamentally wrong with his idea.